Israel’s General Election Result Explained: Part 1

We are reporting on the outcome of the Israeli election, almost two months after it was held (on 1 November).  That’s because it has taken this long for a government to be formed. Even now we won’t know who is getting what ministries until the New Year.

Here we look at the context and outcome of the election – overall, and then in some detail. In Part 2 we look at the likely composition of the new government of Israel, and things to watch out for in the coming period.

In Israel, as elsewhere, the ‘winner’ of the election – the leader of the party emerging with the most seats – is invited by the President/Head of State (currently Isaac Herzog) to form a government.  He/she is given an unusually long time, 60 days; failing which the leader of the second largest party is given a chance.

Coalitions in Israeli politics are notoriously complex to form, and then manage, as the previous government showed.  It lasted only a year.  Hence this election - the fifth in just over three years - being announced in the summer.

Seats are allocated on the basis of the proportion of votes won with a minimum of 3.25% of votes required to win a single seat. Many parties did not reach this threshold.

This time there was a clear winner – Benjamin Netanyahu, whose Likud party won 32 seats.  Prior to the election Likud had struck deals with the main religious far-right parties, with a view to governing in coalition together.  This right, and far-right, coalition of parties had campaigned, to all intents and purposes, on a joint platform, and had performed far better than many expected, winning a clear majority of 64 seats between them.  61 are needed to secure a majority in the Knesset.  

It was expected Netanyahu would form a government well within the time allotted. 

In the event Netanyahu had to ask the President for a two week extension to the constitutional deadline, and was granted an extra ten days - to 21 December.  It seems that his coalition partners’ demands proved more difficult to reconcile than expected. 

Finally minutes before the deadline on December 21 Netanyahu announced that he had formed a new Coalition government. He has till 2 January to reveal the precise composition of the new Cabinet.

Before detailing some of the main players in the Coalition, and things to watch out for in the coming months, let’s look at the election results.

ELECTION RESULTS

The turnout was unexpectedly high which helped Netanyahu’s right and far right bloc – 71.3% was the highest since 2015.

Likud led by Netanyahu won 32 seats with 23.4% of votes. 

Religious Zionism, led by Bezalel Smotrich, and its partner party Otzma Yehudit, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir, won 14 seats, an increase of 8 on 2021. Both parties campaigned on far-right, Jewish supremacist, pro-settler, anti-Palestinian platforms.  Both parties, particularly Otzma Yehudit, led by the firebrand Ben-Gvir, saw a surge in support from young Israelis.

Shas and the United Torah Judaism parties, both representing the interests of Haredi (ultra-orthodox) Jews, won 11 and 7 seats respectively.

Between them all four of the above parties signed agreements either to run joint lists, or to share what are called left over seats, once the first seat allocation is completed.  In effect this signified a shared desire to form a government together.

Yesh Atid, a centre party led by the outgoing Prime Minister Yair Lapid increased its share of seats to 24, coming in second.

National Unity, led by Benny Gantz, the other main party in the previous coalition, won 12 seats, two down on 2021.

Left leaning and centre left parties (generally more supportive of the Palestinian population) suffered major losses:

Labor won 4 seats, down from 7, and Meretz won no seats, down from 6.

United Arab List (Ra’am) won 5 seats an increase of 1.  No other ‘Arab/Palestinian’ parties won seats.

In short this was a surprisingly good outcome for the right and far-right parties with a surge in support for those far-right religious parties which have aligned with Likud to form a coalition.  Although the overall percentage of votes cast for the centre, and centre-left remained roughly the same as in the precious election in 2021, the higher overall turnout, and a splintering of centre and left-leaning parties, played to the advantage of Likud and its far-right religious coalition partners.

Read Part 2 to find out more about the new government.